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任泽平:三四线城市地产销量火爆

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年10月20日 03:43:56
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(  2016年)(,不)(仅)(一)(二)(线)(,而)(且)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(去)(库)(存)(超)(预)(期)(
  2015年)(12月)(中)(央)(经)(济)(工)(作)(会)(议)(把)(化)(解)(房)(地)(产)(库)(存)(列)(为)(2016年)(五)(大)(任)(务)(之)(一)(。
  2016年)(全)(国)(商)(品)(房)(销)(售)(面)(积)(增)(速)(达)(22.5%,较)(2015年)(加)(快)(16个)(百)(分)(点)(。其)(中)(,一)(线)(城)(市)(商)(品)(房)(销)(量)(增)(速)(为)(9.0%,较)(2015年)(下)(降)(6.3个)(百)(分)(点)(;二)(线)(城)(市)(商)(品)(房)(销)(量)(增)(速)(为)(27.1%,上)(升)(18.1个)(百)(分)(点)(;三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(商)(品)(房)(销)(售)(面)(积)(增)(速)(为)(21.6%,上)(升)(16.6个)(百)(分)(点)(。
  由)(于)(房)(地)(产)(库)(存)(主)(要)(集)(中)(在)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(,不)(仅)(一)(二)(线)(、而)(且)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(去)(库)(存)(超)(预)(期)(。
  三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(分)(化)(明)(显)(
  浙)(闽)(粤)(琼)(等)(地)(区)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(商)(品)(房)(销)(量)(火)(爆)(,辽)(黑)(陕)(蒙)(新)(等)(销)(量)(低)(迷)(甚)(至)(负)(增)(长)(。
  销)(售)(火)(爆)(的)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(主)(要)(分)(为)(三)(类)(:
  其)(一)(,大)(都)(市)(圈)(及)(部)(分)(核)(心)(二)(线)(城)(市)(周)(边)(的)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(,主)(要)(受)(益)(于)(核)(心)(城)(市)(限)(购)(及)(高)(房)(价)(的)(溢)(出)(效)(应)(,以)(及)(去)(库)(存)(政)(策)(。比)(如)(,珠)(三)(角)(区)(域)(的)(惠)(州)(、东)(莞)(、佛)(山)(、珠)(海)(、江)(门)(、汕)(头)(、汕)(尾)(等)(地)(,2015-2016年)(累)(计)(增)(幅)(多)(在)(80%以)(上)(;长)(三)(角)(的)(嘉)(兴)(、湖)(州)(、镇)(江)(、宁)(波)(、台)(州)(、马)(鞍)(山)(等)(地)(,累)(计)(增)(幅)(在)(70%以)(上)(;京)(津)(附)(近)(的)(廊)(坊)(,累)(计)(增)(幅)(在)(50%以)(上)(;厦)(门)(附)(近)(的)(漳)(州)(,累)(计)(增)(幅)(均)(超)(过)(55%;合)(肥)(附)(近)(的)(六)(安)(、武)(汉)(附)(近)(的)(孝)(感)(,累)(计)(增)(幅)(超)(过)(80%。
  其)(二)(,传)(统)(农)(民)(工)(主)(要)(输)(出)(区)(域)(、且)(自)(身)(资)(源)(环)(境)(条)(件)(较)(好)(的)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(,受)(益)(于)(去)(库)(存)(政)(策)(刺)(激)(+农)(民)(工)(回)(流)(或)(农)(民)(进)(城)(购)(房)(,加)(之)(基)(数)(小)(影)(响)(。比)(如)(湖)(南)(的)(邵)(阳)(、怀)(化)(、郴)(州)(、永)(州)(、岳)(阳)(、衡)(阳)(等)(,江)(西)(的)(萍)(乡)(、宜)(春)(、吉)(安)(,安)(徽)(的)(阜)(阳)(、安)(庆)(,四)(川)(的)(内)(江)(、宜)(宾)(、泸)(州)(,广)(西)(的)(南)(宁)(,累)(计)(增)(幅)(多)(超)(过)(60%,甚)(至)(超)(过)(80%。
  其)(三)(,自)(然)(环)(境)(好)(的)(海)(南)(等)(地)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(销)(量)(火)(爆)(,受)(益)(于)(消)(费)(升)(级)(、旅)(游)(度)(假)(需)(求)(增)(加)(,和)(全)(国)(多)(数)(地)(区)(的)(雾)(霾)(环)(境)(压)(力)(,加)(之)(去)(库)(存)(政)(策)(刺)(激)(和)(基)(数)(小)(的)(影)(响)(。比)(如)(,三)(亚)(、儋)(州)(、陵)(水)(、东)(方)(、屯)(昌)(、保)(亭)(等)(地)(,累)(计)(增)(幅)(多)(超)(过)(60%。
  人)(口)(总)(体)(向)(大)(都)(市)(圈)(迁)(移)(,三)(四)(线)(分)(化)(持)(续)(
  我)(们)(在)(《房)(地)(产)(周)(期)(研)(究)(》、《人)(口)(迁)(移)(的)(国)(际)(规)(律)(与)(中)(国)(展)(望)(:城)(市)(的)(胜)(利)(》、《控)(不)(住)(的)(人)(口)(:从)(国)(际)(经)(验)(看)(北)(京)(上)(海)(等)(超)(大)(城)(市)(人)(口)(发)(展)(趋)(势)(》等)(多)(篇)(报)(告)(里)(研)(究)(了)(美)(国)(、日)(本)(、韩)(国)(等)(先)(行)(经)(济)(体)(人)(口)(迁)(移)(及)(城)(市)(化)(发)(展)(经)(验)(。
  国)(内)(外)(经)(验)(表)(明)(,人)(口)(迁)(移)(的)(第)(二)(个)(阶)(段)(是)(从)(农)(村)(和)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(向)(一)(二)(线)(大)(都)(市)(圈)(及)(卫)(星)(城)(迁)(移)(,部)(分)(三)(四)(线)(人)(口)(面)(临)(迁)(入)(停)(滞)(,大)(都)(市)(圈)(人)(口)(继)(续)(增)(加)(,这)(可)(能)(跟)(产)(业)(向)(高)(端)(制)(造)(业)(和)(现)(代)(服)(务)(业)(升)(级)(,及)(大)(都)(市)(圈)(学)(校)(医)(院)(等)(公)(共)(资)(源)(富)(集)(有)(关)(。
  2017年)(三)(四)(线)(去)(库)(存)(超)(预)(期)(,补)(库)(存)(有)(助)(于)(地)(产)(投)(资)(改)(善)(
  在)(狭)(义)(库)(存)(方)(面)(,2016年)(末)(全)(国)(商)(品)(房)(待)(售)(面)(积)((现)(房)(库)(存)()为)(6.95亿)(平)(方)(米)(,较)(2015年)(末)(下)(降)(3.2%;以)(待)(售)(面)(积)(/12月)(均)(现)(房)(销)(售)(面)(积)(计)(算)(,2016年)(末)(全)(国)(商)(品)(房)(可)(售)(库)(存)(去)(化)(周)(期)(为)(19.5个)(月)(,较)(2015年)(末)(下)(降)(5.6个)(月)(。
  在)(广)(义)(库)(存)(方)(面)(,以)(累)(计)(新)(开)(工)(面)(积)(减)(去)(累)(计)(销)(售)(面)(积)(计)(算)(,并)(扣)(除)(非)(住)(宅)(的)(自)(持)(部)(分)((假)(定)(比)(例)(为)(30%),2016年)(末)(全)(国)(商)(品)(房)(广)(义)(库)(存)(为)(43.2亿)(平)(方)(米)(,较)(2015年)(末)(下)(降)(1.3%;去)(化)(周)(期)(为)(32.9个)(月)(,下)(降)(7.9个)(月)(。
  考)(虑)(到)(一)(线)(、部)(分)(二)(三)(四)(线)(补)(库)(存)(,这)(将)(拉)(动)(土)(地)(购)(置)(和)(房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(投)(资)(,上)(调)(2017年)(全)(国)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(增)(速)(至)(4%、上)(半)(年)(5%,同)(时)(家)(电)(、建)(筑)(建)(材)(、装)(修)(等)(行)(业)(也)(将)(受)(益)(。
  风)(险)(提)(示)(:去)(库)(存)(不)(及)(预)(期)(;房)(地)(产)(长)(效)(机)(制)(建)(立)(不)(及)(预)(期)(。
  全)(文)(如)(下)(:地)(产)(销)(量)(火)(爆)(的)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(是)(哪)(些)(?1.2016年)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(整)(体)(销)(量)(火)(爆)(
  2015年)(12月)(中)(央)(经)(济)(工)(作)(会)(议)(把)(化)(解)(房)(地)(产)(库)(存)(列)(为)(2016年)(五)(大)(任)(务)(之)(一)(,这)(意)(味)(着)(房)(地)(产)(去)(库)(存)(正)(式)(上)(升)(为)(国)(家)(战)(略)(。
  具)(体)(政)(策)(主)(要)(包)(括)(:
  其)(一)(,支)(持)(、引)(导)(农)(民)(工)(和)(农)(民)(进)(城)(买)(房)(。
  其)(二)(,推)(进)(棚)(改)(货)(币)(化)(安)(置)(去)(库)(存)(。2016年)(是)(棚)(改)(三)(年)(计)(划)((总)(1800万)(套)()的)(第)(二)(年)(,全)(国)(棚)(改)(开)(工)(606万)(套)(,棚)(改)(货)(币)(化)(安)(置)(比)(例)(达)(48.5%,较)(2015年)(提)(高)(18.6个)(百)(分)(点)(。
  其)(三)(,推)(进)(住)(房)(租)(赁)(市)(场)(发)(展)(去)(库)(存)(。
  其)(四)(,发)(展)(跨)(界)(地)(产)(。
  其)(五)(,实)(施)(有)(效)(用)(地)(调)(节)(政)(策)(。
  由)(于)(房)(地)(产)(库)(存)(主)(要)(集)(中)(在)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(,去)(库)(存)(政)(策)(的)(因)(城)(施)(策)(色)(彩)(明)(显)(。
  2016年)(全)(国)(商)(品)(房)(销)(售)(面)(积)(增)(速)(达)(22.5%,为)(2010年)(以)(来)(最)(高)(值)(,较)(2015年)(提)(升)(16个)(百)(分)(点)(。其)(中)(,一)(线)(城)(市)(商)(品)(房)(销)(量)(增)(速)(为)(9.0%,较)(2015年)(下)(降)(6.3个)(百)(分)(点)(;二)(线)(城)(市)(商)(品)(房)(销)(量)(增)(速)(为)(27.1%,上)(升)(18.1个)(百)(分)(点)(;三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(商)(品)(房)(销)(售)(面)(积)(增)(速)(为)(21.6%,上)(升)(16.6个)(百)(分)(点)(。
  2.三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(销)(量)(分)(化)(明)(显)(:都)(市)(圈)(周)(边)(+部)(分)(农)(民)(工)(回)(流)(地)(区)(
  从)(地)(区)(看)(,全)(国)(分)(化)(明)(显)(,浙)(闽)(粤)(琼)(等)(地)(区)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(商)(品)(房)(销)(量)(火)(爆)(,辽)(黑)(陕)(蒙)(新)(等)(地)(区)(销)(量)(低)(迷)(甚)(至)(负)(增)(长)(。扣)(除)(一)(二)(线)(城)(市)(后)(,2016年)(商)(品)(房)(销)(售)(面)(积)(增)(速)(位)(居)(前)(列)(的)(是)(西)(藏)(、海)(南)(、浙)(江)(、安)(徽)(、江)(西)(、吉)(林)(、广)(东)(、江)(苏)(等)(地)(;而)(增)(速)(靠)(后)(的)(则)(是)(辽)(宁)(、黑)(龙)(江)(、新)(疆)(、陕)(西)(、内)(蒙)(古)(等)(地)(。
  需)(要)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,在)(2015年)(全)(国)(商)(品)(房)(销)(量)(整)(体)(低)(迷)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,广)(东)(、浙)(江)(等)(地)(2015年)(商)(品)(房)(销)(售)(面)(积)(增)(速)(仍)(在)(20%以)(上)(,江)(西)(、江)(苏)(、湖)(南)(、广)(西)(、贵)(州)(、四)(川)(等)(地)(在)(10%以)(上)(;显)(然)(,这)(对)(其)(2016年)(的)(销)(量)(增)(速)(存)(在)(影)(响)(。
  综)(合)(2015-2016年)(的)(情)(况)(看)(,三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(商)(品)(房)(销)(量)(增)(幅)(居)(前)(的)(地)(区)(是)(浙)(江)(、江)(西)(、广)(东)(、海)(南)(等)(,增)(幅)(达)(50%以)(上)(;而)(辽)(宁)(、黑)(龙)(江)(、陕)(西)(、宁)(夏)(、新)(疆)(等)(地)(区)(销)(量)(低)(迷)(,甚)(至)(为)(负)(增)(长)(。
  从)(贡)(献)(看)(,2015-2016年)(广)(东)(、江)(苏)(、浙)(江)(、河)(南)(四)(省)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(商)(品)(房)(销)(售)(面)(积)(的)(增)(量)(对)(总)(体)(增)(量)(的)(贡)(献)(合)(计)(达)(51.7%;加)(上)(安)(徽)(、湖)(南)(两)(省)(,贡)(献)(合)(计)(达)(66.3%;再)(加)(上)(江)(西)(、山)(东)(、四)(川)(、贵)(州)(,贡)(献)(合)(计)(达)(81.4%。
  从)(地)(级)(市)(层)(面)(看)(,三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(地)(产)(销)(量)(分)(化)(更)(加)(明)(显)(。
  根)(据)(我)(们)(从)(地)(方)(政)(府)(网)(站)(上)(搜)(集)(的)(数)(据)(整)(理)(,在)(大)(陆)(363个)(地)(区)(中)((含)(部)(分)(省)(直)(辖)(县)(及)(县)(级)(市)(,未)(剔)(除)(一)(二)(线)(城)(市)(),2015-2016年)(有)(56个)(地)(级)(以)(上)(地)(区)(商)(品)(房)(销)(售)(面)(积)(累)(计)(增)(幅)(在)(65%以)(上)(,其)(中)(有)(17个)(超)(过)(100%;有)(64个)(地)(区)(在)(40%-65%之)(间)(,有)(90个)(地)(区)(在)(20%-40%之)(间)(,有)(64个)(地)(区)(在)(0-20%之)(间)(,有)(89个)(地)(区)(在)(0%以)(下)(。
  销)(售)(火)(爆)(的)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(主)(要)(分)(为)(如)(下)(三)(类)(:
  其)(一)(,大)(都)(市)(圈)(及)(部)(分)(核)(心)(二)(线)(城)(市)(周)(边)(的)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(,主)(要)(受)(益)(于)(核)(心)(城)(市)(限)(购)(及)(高)(房)(价)(的)(溢)(出)(效)(应)(,以)(及)(去)(库)(存)(政)(策)(。
  比)(如)(,珠)(三)(角)(区)(域)(的)(惠)(州)(、东)(莞)(、佛)(山)(、珠)(海)(、江)(门)(、汕)(头)(、汕)(尾)(等)(地)(,2015-2016年)(累)(计)(增)(幅)(多)(在)(80%以)(上)(;长)(三)(角)(的)(嘉)(兴)(、湖)(州)(、镇)(江)(、宁)(波)(、台)(州)(、马)(鞍)(山)(等)(地)(,累)(计)(增)(幅)(在)(70%以)(上)(;京)(津)(附)(近)(的)(廊)(坊)(,累)(计)(增)(幅)(在)(50%以)(上)(;厦)(门)(附)(近)(的)(漳)(州)(,累)(计)(增)(幅)(均)(超)(过)(55%;合)(肥)(附)(近)(的)(六)(安)(、武)(汉)(附)(近)(的)(孝)(感)(,累)(计)(增)(幅)(超)(过)(80%。
  其)(二)(,传)(统)(农)(民)(工)(主)(要)(输)(出)(区)(域)(、且)(自)(身)(资)(源)(环)(境)(条)(件)(较)(好)(的)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(,受)(益)(于)(去)(库)(存)(政)(策)(刺)(激)(+农)(民)(工)(回)(流)(或)(农)(民)(进)(城)(购)(房)(,加)(之)(基)(数)(小)(的)(影)(响)(。
  比)(如)(湖)(南)(的)(邵)(阳)(、怀)(化)(、郴)(州)(、永)(州)(、岳)(阳)(、衡)(阳)(等)(,江)(西)(的)(萍)(乡)(、宜)(春)(、吉)(安)(,安)(徽)(的)(阜)(阳)(、安)(庆)(,四)(川)(的)(内)(江)(、宜)(宾)(、泸)(州)(,广)(西)(的)(南)(宁)(,累)(计)(增)(幅)(多)(超)(过)(60%,甚)(至)(超)(过)(80%。
  其)(三)(,自)(然)(环)(境)(好)(的)(海)(南)(等)(地)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(销)(量)(火)(爆)(,受)(益)(于)(消)(费)(升)(级)(、旅)(游)(度)(假)(需)(求)(增)(加)(,和)(全)(国)(多)(数)(地)(区)(的)(雾)(霾)(环)(境)(压)(力)(,加)(之)(去)(库)(存)(政)(策)(刺)(激)(和)(基)(数)(小)(的)(影)(响)(。
  比)(如)(,三)(亚)(、儋)(州)(、陵)(水)(、东)(方)(、屯)(昌)(、保)(亭)(等)(地)(,累)(计)(增)(幅)(多)(超)(过)(60%,甚)(至)(超)(过)(200%。
  如)(何)(看)(待)(三)(四)(线)(地)(产)(销)(量)(火)(爆)(:人)(口)(迁)(移)(趋)(势)(未)(改)(,未)(来)(三)(四)(线)(分)(化)(持)(续)(1.国)(内)(外)(经)(验)(表)(明)(人)(口)(向)(大)(都)(市)(圈)(迁)(移)(趋)(势)(
  国)(际)(经)(验)(表)(明)(,人)(口)(迁)(移)(的)(第)(二)(个)(阶)(段)(是)(从)(农)(村)(和)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(向)(一)(二)(线)(大)(都)(市)(圈)(及)(卫)(星)(城)(迁)(移)(,三)(四)(线)(人)(口)(面)(临)(迁)(入)(停)(滞)(,大)(都)(市)(圈)(人)(口)(继)(续)(增)(加)(。
  我)(们)(在)(《房)(地)(产)(周)(期)(研)(究)(》、《人)(口)(迁)(移)(的)(国)(际)(规)(律)(与)(中)(国)(展)(望)(:城)(市)(的)(胜)(利)(》、《控)(不)(住)(的)(人)(口)(:从)(国)(际)(经)(验)(看)(北)(京)(上)(海)(等)(超)(大)(城)(市)(人)(口)(发)(展)(趋)(势)(》等)(多)(篇)(报)(告)(里)(研)(究)(了)(美)(国)(、日)(本)(、韩)(国)(等)(先)(行)(经)(济)(体)(人)(口)(迁)(移)(及)(城)(市)(化)(发)(展)(经)(验)(。
  人)(口)(迁)(移)(存)(在)(两)(个)(阶)(段)(:
  第)(一)(阶)(段)(,人)(口)(从)(农)(村)(向)(城)(市)(迁)(移)(,一)(二)(线)(和)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(都)(有)(人)(口)(迁)(入)(,这)(可)(能)(跟)(这)(一)(阶)(段)(产)(业)(以)(加)(工)(贸)(易)(、中)(低)(端)(制)(造)(业)(和)(资)(源)(性)(产)(业)(为)(主)(有)(关)(。
  第)(二)(阶)(段)(,当)(城)(市)(化)(处)(于)(中)(后)(期)(时)(,人)(口)(从)(农)(村)(和)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(向)(一)(二)(线)(大)(都)(市)(圈)(及)(卫)(星)(城)(迁)(移)(,三)(四)(线)(人)(口)(面)(临)(迁)(入)(停)(滞)(,大)(都)(市)(圈)(人)(口)(继)(续)(增)(加)(,集)(聚)(效)(应)(更)(加)(明)(显)(,这)(可)(能)(跟)(产)(业)(向)(高)(端)(制)(造)(业)(和)(现)(代)(服)(务)(业)(升)(级)(,以)(及)(大)(都)(市)(圈)(学)(校)(医)(院)(等)(公)(共)(资)(源)(富)(集)(有)(关)(。
  国)(内)(人)(口)(迁)(移)(趋)(势)(也)(表)(明)(,在)(城)(市)(化)(进)(入)(中)(后)(期)(后)(,人)(口)(在)(向)(大)(都)(市)(圈)(及)(部)(分)(二)(线)(核)(心)(城)(市)(迁)(移)(。在)(2010年)(之)(前)(的)(快)(速)(城)(市)(化)(进)(程)(中)(,中)(西)(部)(地)(区)(人)(口)(长)(期)(主)(要)(向)(东)(部)(地)(区)(的)(长)(三)(角)(、珠)(三)(角)(及)(京)(津)(地)(区)(集)(聚)(;但)(2011以)(来)(,在)(东)(部)(地)(区)(的)(外)(来)(务)(工)(人)(员)(部)(分)(回)(流)(中)(西)(部)(地)(区)(,人)(口)(主)(要)(迁)(入)(大)(都)(市)(圈)(和)(部)(分)(二)(线)(核)(心)(城)(市)(。虽)(然)(人)(口)(向)(大)(都)(市)(圈)(及)(部)(分)(核)(心)(城)(市)(迁)(移)(集)(聚)(速)(度)(整)(体)(放)(缓)(,但)(趋)(势)(未)(改)(;而)(三)(四)(线)(样)(本)(城)(市)(从)(之)(前)(少)(量)(净)(迁)(入)(变)(为)(净)(迁)(出)(,人)(口)(更)(多)(依)(赖)(自)(然)(增)(长)(。
  虽)(然)(近)(期)(北)(京)(、上)(海)(由)(于)(人)(口)(调)(控)(人)(口)(增)(长)(放)(缓)(、甚)(至)(负)(增)(长)(,但)(我)(们)(在)(报)(告)(《控)(不)(住)(的)(人)(口)(:从)(国)(际)(经)(验)(看)(北)(京)(上)(海)(等)(超)(大)(城)(市)(人)(口)(发)(展)(趋)(势)(》谈)(到)(“城)(市)(功)(能)(区)(”概)(念)(,即)(超)(越)(行)(政)(边)(界)(看)(待)(城)(市)(。在)(人)(口)(强)(力)(调)(控)(下)(,北)(京)(、上)(海)(行)(政)(区)(域)(内)(的)(人)(口)(可)(能)(在)(短)(期)(增)(长)(放)(缓)(,但)(在)(其)(周)(边)(行)(政)(区)(域)(的)(人)(口)(增)(长)(会)(很)(快)(,比)(如)(北)(京)(周)(边)(的)(廊)(坊)(市)(三)(河)(市)(燕)(郊)(镇)(从)(2010年)(的)(29.2万)(人)(快)(速)(增)(至)(2015年)(的)(约)(75万)(人)(。并)(且)(,天)(津)(、深)(圳)(、广)(州)(或)(部)(分)(受)(益)(于)(北)(京)(上)(海)(人)(口)(强)(力)(调)(控)(,近)(几)(年)(人)(口)(大)(幅)(增)(长)(。
  因)(此)(,我)(们)(在)(2015年)(提)(出)(“一)(线)(房)(价)(翻)(一)(倍)(”,房)(地)(产)(周)(期)(长)(期)(看)(人)(口)(,短)(期)(看)(金)(融)(和)(土)(地)(,直)(观)(看)(库)(存)(。这)(可)(以)(解)(释)(2015-2016年)(中)(国)(房)(价)(的)(区)(域)(分)(化)(严)(重)(,以)(前)(“区)(域)(均)(衡)(发)(展)(、控)(制)(大)(城)(市)(规)(模)(、重)(点)(发)(展)(小)(城)(镇)(”是)(不)(符)(合)(城)(市)(化)(发)(展)(基)(本)(规)(律)(的)(。
  自)(去)(年)(末)(中)(央)(提)(出)(推)(行)(“人)(地)(挂)(钩)(”、建)(立)(促)(进)(房)(地)(产)(长)(效)(机)(制)(以)(来)(,热)(点)(城)(市)(的)(相)(关)(进)(展)(不)(及)(预)(期)(,目)(前)(限)(购)(限)(贷)(、房)(贷)(优)(惠)(折)(扣)(上)(浮)(等)(短)(期)(调)(控)(政)(策)(只)(是)(把)(需)(求)(推)(迟)(。比)(如)(,在)(《北)(京)(市)(2017年)(国)(有)(建)(设)(用)(地)(供)(应)(计)(划)(》中)(,商)(品)(住)(宅)(用)(地)(计)(划)(仅)(安)(排)(260公)(顷)((含)(自)(住)(型)(商)(品)(房)(用)(地)(83公)(顷)(),比)(2016年)(的)(850公)(顷)(骤)(减)(近)(七)(成)(。2月)(28日)(,习)(近)(平)(总)(书)(记)(在)(主)(持)(召)(开)(中)(央)(财)(经)(领)(导)(小)(组)(第)(十)(五)(次)(会)(议)(时)(指)(出)(,建)(立)(促)(进)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(平)(稳)(健)(康)(发)(展)(长)(效)(机)(制)(,其)(中)(一)(个)(亮)(点)(是)(要)(调)(整)(和)(优)(化)(中)(长)(期)(供)(给)(体)(系)(,实)(现)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(动)(态)(均)(衡)(。从)(土)(地)(制)(度)(上)(看)(,城)(市)(土)(地)(供)(给)(规)(模)(由)(政)(府)(制)(定)(的)(中)(长)(期)(土)(地)(利)(用)(规)(划)(、五)(年)(土)(地)(利)(用)(计)(划)(、年)(度)(土)(地)(利)(用)(计)(划)(等)(确)(定)(,一)(旦)(中)(长)(期)(土)(地)(利)(用)(规)(划)(和)(相)(关)(城)(市)(总)(体)(规)(划)(确)(定)(总)(量)(,除)(非)(进)(行)(修)(订)(,否)(则)(土)(地)(供)(给)(将)(受)(到)(严)(格)(限)(制)(。如)(果)(长)(效)(机)(制)(建)(立)(不)(理)(想)(,2017年)(底)(-2018年)(上)(半)(年)(一)(线)(和)(部)(分)(二)(线)(房)(价)(或)(将)(面)(临)(新)(一)(轮)(上)(涨)(压)(力)(。
  2.三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(内)(部)(分)(化)(是)(必)(然)(,未)(来)(仍)(将)(持)(续)(
  从)(总)(体)(上)(讲)(,三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(之)(所)(以)(地)(产)(销)(量)(分)(化)(明)(显)(,主)(要)(在)(于)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(的)(范)(围)(广)(、数)(量)(多)(、情)(况)(各)(异)(。
  由)(于)(并)(无)(明)(确)(的)(城)(市)(分)(线)(标)(准)(,学)(界)(和)(市)(场)(通)(常)(把)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(视)(作)(除)(一)(二)(线)(以)(外)(的)(其)(他)(地)(区)(。当)(前)(,除)(4个)(直)(辖)(市)(外)(,我)(国)(大)(陆)(有)(334个)(地)(级)(行)(政)(区)(域)((含)(276个)(地)(级)(城)(市)(、10个)(副)(省)(级)(省)(会)(城)(市)(、5个)(计)(划)(单)(列)(市)(),2850个)(县)(级)(单)(位)((含)(921个)(市)(辖)(区)(、361个)(县)(级)(市)(、1397个)(县)(、117个)(自)(治)(县)()。大)(部)(分)(县)(级)(市)(隶)(属)(于)(地)(级)(以)(上)(城)(市)(,但)(仍)(有)(一)(些)(隶)(属)(于)(地)(区)(或)(盟)(或)(自)(治)(州)(等)(其)(他)(地)(级)(行)(政)(单)(位)(。
  这)(意)(味)(着)(如)(果)(仅)(以)(地)(级)(城)(市)(论)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(,三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(数)(量)(高)(达)(260-270个)(左)(右)(。如)(果)(加)(上)(县)(级)(市)(,三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(数)(量)(则)(高)(达)(600个)(以)(上)(;再)(考)(虑)(县)(,则)(有)(2000个)(以)(上)(。在)(数)(量)(庞)(大)(、情)(况)(各)(异)(的)(划)(分)(下)(,三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(内)(部)(分)(化)(是)(必)(然)(的)(。以)(地)(级)(城)(市)(论)(,260-270个)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(出)(现)(50个)(、乃)(至)(100个)(表)(现)(不)(错)(的)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(是)(非)(常)(正)(常)(的)(;如)(果)(从)(县)(级)(层)(面)(论)(,出)(现)(500个)(左)(右)(与)(三)(四)(线)(整)(体)(发)(展)(趋)(势)(不)(一)(致)(的)(县)(级)(市)(或)(县)(也)(是)(很)(正)(常)(的)(事)(情)(。
  并)(且)(,三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(内)(部)(差)(异)(也)(很)(大)(。一)(个)(地)(级)(市)(既)(包)(括)(城)(区)(、市)(区)((市)(辖)(区)(),还)(包)(括)(下)(辖)(县)((县)(级)(市)();在)(县)(内)(部)(,既)(包)(括)(县)(城)(,还)(包)(括)(下)(辖)(建)(制)(镇)(。比)(如)(,根)(据)(浙)(江)(省)(官)(方)(数)(据)(,2016年)(11月)(末)(全)(省)(可)(售)(商)(品)(房)(库)(存)(去)(化)(周)(期)(为)(12.1个)(月)(;其)(中)(,11个)(设)(市)(市)(区)(平)(均)(为)(10.5个)(月)(,54个)(县)((县)(级)(市)()为)(14.7个)(月)(。分)(设)(市)(市)(区)(看)(,绍)(兴)(去)(化)(周)(期)(为)(15.2个)(月)(,丽)(水)(则)(为)(8.3个)(月)(;分)(县)((市)()看)(,有)(46个)(县)((市)()商)(品)(房)(去)(化)(周)(期)(在)(20个)(月)(以)(内)(,有)(6个)(在)(20-24个)(月)(,有)(2个)(县)(在)(24-30个)(月)(。
  在)(农)(民)(工)(回)(流)(背)(景)(下)(,内)(部)(分)(化)(足)(以)(可)(以)(解)(释)(除)(大)(都)(市)(圈)(周)(边)(的)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(外)(,为)(什)(么)(2015-2016年)(还)(有)(一)(些)(其)(他)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(地)(产)(销)(量)(火)(爆)(。否)(则)(以)(三)(四)(线)(人)(口)(再)(集)(聚)(或)(逆)(城)(市)(论)(,难)(以)(解)(释)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(内)(部)(的)(明)(显)(分)(化)(。比)(如)(,在)(同)(样)(是)(传)(统)(农)(民)(工)(输)(出)(大)(省)(,为)(什)(么)(2015-2016年)(江)(西)(商)(品)(房)(销)(售)(面)(积)(累)(计)(增)(幅)(高)(达)(54%(扣)(除)(二)(线)(),湖)(南)(、安)(徽)(接)(近)(40%,河)(南)(为)(34%,而)(四)(川)(、湖)(北)(则)(不)(到)(30%,重)(庆)(只)(有)(23%。并)(且)(,在)(一)(个)(省)(内)(部)(,各)(地)(区)(的)(差)(异)(也)(很)(大)(,比)(如)(2015-2016年)(江)(西)(的)(萍)(乡)(市)(累)(计)(增)(幅)(高)(达)(140%,景)(德)(镇)(市)(累)(计)(增)(幅)(则)(不)(到)(2%。
  总)(之)(,三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(内)(部)(分)(化)(明)(显)(,并)(仍)(将)(持)(续)(,一)(些)(城)(市)(逐)(渐)(脱)(颖)(而)(出)(成)(为)(热)(点)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(。就)(如)(同)(在)(二)(线)(城)(市)(中)(,2015-2016年)(房)(价)(涨)(幅)(分)(化)(也)(非)(常)(明)(显)(。比)(如)(,合)(肥)(、厦)(门)(等)(二)(线)(城)(市)(暴)(涨)(,但)(沈)(阳)(、长)(春)(、哈)(尔)(滨)(等)(二)(线)(城)(市)(涨)(幅)(很)(小)(、甚)(至)(不)(如)(一)(些)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(。
  总)(的)(来)(说)(,在)(人)(口)(迁)(移)(趋)(势)(上)(,我)(们)(维)(持)(人)(口)(向)(大)(都)(市)(圈)(及)(部)(分)(核)(心)(二)(线)(城)(市)(迁)(移)(趋)(势)(不)(变)(,并)(强)(调)(在)(农)(民)(工)(回)(流)(背)(景)(下)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(内)(部)(分)(化)(明)(显)(。
  2017年)(三)(四)(线)(去)(库)(存)(超)(预)(期)(,部)(分)(城)(市)(补)(库)(存)(有)(助)(于)(投)(资)(改)(善)(1.2017年)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(房)(地)(产)(去)(库)(存)(分)(化)(较)(大)(
  2016年)(末)(中)(央)(经)(济)(工)(作)(会)(议)(强)(调)(,要)(坚)(持)(分)(类)(调)(控)(,因)(城)(因)(地)(施)(策)(,重)(点)(解)(决)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(房)(地)(产)(库)(存)(过)(多)(问)(题)(。
  从)(全)(国)(整)(体)(看)(,三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(去)(库)(存)(分)(化)(较)(大)(,部)(分)(去)(库)(存)(充)(分)(,部)(分)(压)(力)(仍)(然)(很)(大)(。
  在)(狭)(义)(库)(存)(方)(面)(,2016年)(末)(全)(国)(商)(品)(房)(待)(售)(面)(积)((现)(房)(库)(存)()为)(6.95亿)(平)(方)(米)(,较)(2015年)(末)(下)(降)(3.2%;其)(中)(,商)(品)(住)(宅)(待)(售)(面)(积)(为)(4.03亿)(平)(方)(米)(,较)(2015年)(末)(下)(降)(11%。以)(待)(售)(面)(积)(/12月)(均)(现)(房)(销)(售)(面)(积)(计)(算)(,2016年)(末)(全)(国)(商)(品)(房)(可)(售)(库)(存)(去)(化)(周)(期)(为)(19.5个)(月)(,较)(2015年)(末)(下)(降)(5.6个)(月)(;其)(中)(,商)(品)(住)(宅)(可)(售)(库)(存)(为)(13.9个)(月)(,下)(降)(5.3个)(月)(;非)(住)(宅)(可)(售)(库)(存)(为)(43.6个)(月)(,下)(降)(6.9个)(月)(。
  在)(广)(义)(库)(存)(方)(面)(,原)(则)(上)(以)(累)(计)(新)(开)(工)(面)(积)(减)(去)(累)(计)(销)(售)(面)(积)(计)(算)(,并)(扣)(除)(非)(住)(宅)(的)(自)(持)(部)(分)((假)(定)(比)(例)(为)(30%)。2016年)(末)(全)(国)(商)(品)(房)(广)(义)(库)(存)(为)(43.2亿)(平)(方)(米)(,较)(2015年)(末)(下)(降)(1.3%;去)(化)(周)(期)(为)(32.9个)(月)(,下)(降)(7.9个)(月)(。商)(品)(住)(宅)(广)(义)(库)(存)(为)(25.4亿)(平)(方)(米)(,下)(降)(7.8%;去)(化)(周)(期)(为)(22.2个)(月)(,下)(降)(7.3个)(月)(。非)(住)(宅)(广)(义)(库)(存)(为)(17.8亿)(平)(方)(米)(,上)(升)(9.8%;去)(化)(周)(期)(为)(107.6个)(月)(,下)(降)(13个)(月)(。
  此)(外)(,上)(述)(估)(计)(还)(未)(考)(虑)(待)(开)(发)(土)(地)(面)(积)(,2016年)(末)(为)(3.5亿)(平)(方)(米)(,以)(容)(积)(率)(1.5-2.0计)(算)(,商)(品)(房)(待)(开)(发)(面)(积)(有)(5.3-7.0亿)(平)(方)(米)(。
  从)(省)(级)(层)(面)(看)(,东)(北)(、西)(北)(地)(区)(广)(义)(库)(存)(高)(企)(,中)(南)(、西)(南)(地)(区)(库)(存)(较)(为)(合)(理)(。东)(北)(、西)(北)(地)(区)(多)(数)(省)(份)(去)(化)(周)(期)(最)(长)(,去)(化)(压)(力)(大)(;其)(次)(是)(浙)(江)(、福)(建)(、河)(北)(、甘)(肃)(;再)(次)(是)(云)(南)(、山)(东)(、江)(苏)(、安)(徽)(、陕)(西)(等)(地)(;广)(东)(、广)(西)(、江)(西)(、湖)(南)(、湖)(北)(、四)(川)(、贵)(州)(、重)(庆)(等)(地)(区)(的)(去)(化)(周)(期)(则)(比)(较)(合)(理)(。
  2.2017-2018年)(补)(库)(存)(将)(推)(动)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(
  从)(政)(策)(上)(看)(,房)(地)(产)(去)(库)(存)(政)(策)(对)(销)(售)(的)(影)(响)(将)(边)(际)(下)(降)(。根)(据)(2月)(23日)(住)(房)(和)(城)(乡)(建)(设)(部)(相)(关)(负)(责)(人)(介)(绍)(,在)(去)(库)(存)(方)(面)(,今)(年)(各)(地)(将)(总)(结)(经)(验)(,继)(续)(鼓)(励)(、引)(导)(农)(民)(工)(和)(农)(民)(进)(城)(安)(居)(;继)(续)(推)(进)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(的)(棚)(改)(货)(币)(化)(安)(置)(,继)(续)(提)(高)(比)(例)(,2017年)(全)(国)(棚)(改)(计)(划)(目)(标)(为)(600万)(套)(;继)(续)(推)(进)(住)(房)(租)(赁)(市)(场)(发)(展)(去)(库)(存)(;继)(续)(推)(进)(跨)(界)(地)(产)(发)(展)(去)(库)(存)(。但)(是)(,由)(于)(2016年)(地)(产)(销)(售)(火)(爆)(,2017年)(总)(体)(购)(房)(需)(求)(将)(边)(际)(减)(少)(,加)(之)(高)(基)(数)(效)(应)(,政)(策)(对)(地)(产)(销)(量)(的)(影)(响)(将)(边)(际)(下)(降)(。
  从)(各)(地)(实)(际)(情)(况)(看)(,辽)(宁)(、黑)(龙)(江)(等)(地)(区)(因)(人)(口)(外)(流)(等)(去)(库)(存)(乏)(力)(,广)(东)(等)(地)(区)(已)(完)(成)(去)(库)(存)(任)(务)(。2016年)(广)(东)(、浙)(江)(等)(省)(大)(幅)(超)(额)(完)(成)(去)(库)(存)(任)(务)(。广)(东)(省)(2016年)(化)(解)(商)(品)(房)(库)(存)(面)(积)(2197万)(平)(方)(米)(,大)(幅)(超)(额)(完)(成)(全)(年)(化)(解)(250万)(平)(方)(米)(的)(工)(作)(任)(务)(,去)(库)(存)(周)(期)(为)(11.2个)(月)(,比)(2015年)(底)(缩)(短)(了)(6个)(月)(;其)(中)(商)(品)(住)(宅)(狭)(义)(库)(存)(去)(化)(周)(期)(降)(至)(6个)(月)(左)(右)(。浙)(江)(省)(2016年)(底)(新)(建)(商)(品)(房)(可)(售)(房)(源)(消)(化)(周)(期)(为)(11.7个)(月)(,达)(到)(了)(《浙)(江)(省)(房)(地)(产)(供)(给)(侧)(结)(构)(性)(改)(革)(工)(作)(方)(案)(》提)(出)(的)(10-16个)(月)(的)(合)(理)(水)(平)(;不)(过)(,从)(前)(述)(分)(析)(的)(广)(义)(库)(存)(看)(,浙)(江)(省)(的)(广)(义)(库)(存)(去)(化)(压)(力)(仍)(然)(较)(大)(。
  从)(1-2月)(数)(据)(看)(,三)(四)(线)(样)(本)(城)(市)(销)(量)(同)(比)(增)(速)(仍)(然)(保)(持)(高)(位)(,但)(较)(2016年)(12月)(下)(降)(。在)(根)(据)(Wind日)(交)(易)(数)(据)(整)(理)(的)(46个)(三)(四)(线)(样)(本)(城)(市)(中)(,2017年)(1-2月)(有)(34个)(三)(四)(线)(样)(本)(城)(市)(的)(日)(均)(成)(交)(量)(同)(比)(为)(正)(,其)(中)(有)(29个)(城)(市)(同)(比)(增)(速)(超)(过)(20%、16个)(超)(过)(50%、3个)(超)(过)(100%。但)(从)(整)(体)(看)(,以)(简)(单)(算)(术)(平)(均)(值)(计)(算)(,1-2月)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(房)(地)(产)(成)(交)(量)(同)(比)(增)(速)(为)(38.0%,保)(持)(快)(速)(增)(长)(,但)(低)(于)(2016年)(12月)(的)(42.8%;从)(月)(日)(均)(成)(交)(量)(合)(计)(同)(比)(看)(,1-2月)(,46个)(三)(四)(线)(样)(本)(城)(市)(同)(比)(增)(速)(为)(26.2%,低)(于)(2016年)(12月)(的)(29.3%。
  上)(调)(2017年)(全)(国)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(增)(速)(至)(4%、上)(半)(年)(5%。2016年)(底)(市)(场)(对)(2017年)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(预)(测)(普)(遍)(悲)(观)(,大)(部)(分)(预)(测)(均)(为)(负)(增)(长)(,我)(们)(在)(《为)(什)(么)(我)(们)(对)(2017年)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(预)(测)(不)(悲)(观)(?》报)(告)(中)(,基)(于)(基)(本)(结)(构)(法)((土)(地)(购)(置)(费)(+房)(屋)(施)(工)(面)(积)(*单)(位)(建)(安)(成)(本)()、细)(项)(结)(构)(法)((土)(地)(购)(置)(费)(+建)(筑)(工)(程)(支)(出)(+安)(装)(工)(程)(支)(出)(+设)(备)(工)(器)(具)(购)(置)(支)(出)(+其)(他)()、地)(区)(结)(构)(法)((一)(线)(城)(市)(+二)(线)(城)(市)(+环)(一)(线)(的)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(+其)(他)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)()等)(三)(种)(方)(法)(,预)(测)(今)(年)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(增)(速)(在)(2%-3%左)(右)(。其)(中)(的)(一)(个)(逻)(辑)(是)(,2015-2016年)(一)(线)(、部)(分)(二)(线)(城)(市)(以)(及)(一)(些)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(库)(存)(去)(化)(充)(分)(,补)(库)(存)(需)(求)(强)(烈)(。当)(前)(部)(分)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(销)(售)(火)(爆)(、库)(存)(去)(化)(充)(分)(,这)(将)(拉)(动)(土)(地)(购)(置)(和)(房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(投)(资)(。
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